US-led military action against Syria spells bad news for India

Syria (Photo credit: ewixx)

NEW DELHI: A military intervention in Syria complete with cruise missiles looks more likely after the US cited "evidence" of use of chemical weapons by Syrian President Bashar-al Assad, with US officials threatening the attacks could happen "within days".
As West Asia gets inflamed with an imminent military conflict, it could not have come at a worse time for India. Oil prices spiked on fears of US military action in Syria, while the rupee, along with other developing countries' currencies, hit a record low. For many in the government the similarities with the 1991 crisis seem eerie: then, the first Gulf war had thrown oil prices in turmoil and was believed to be the indirect trigger for India's balance of payments crisis. The problem, as sources said, is that India's uncertain economic situation means it's more vulnerable to external shocks.
India is waiting for the UN investigation into the chemical attack on August 21, to better assess the origin of the attack, while describing it as a "grave concern". "We stress that the international legal norm against the use of chemical weapons anywhere and by anyone must not be breached."
India is not alone since both Russia and China have asked the West to stop any attack. The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said that they hoped "all sides should avoid making pre-judgment on the result of the investigation before the truth is found out."
In Geneva, UN spokesperson, Alessandra Vellucci, told journalists that the UN team might take longer than the stipulated two weeks to complete its investigation. But it is not clear whether the Western countries, whose foreign ministers and Army chiefs have been confabulating in the past couple of days on possible military action, would wait that long.
Military action in Syria would have its cascading effect across the region, even as far as India. With West Asia being home to six million expat Indians, New Delhi is wary of instability in that part of the world. Moreover, the sectarianism that has coloured the Syrian conflict could spill over in communally fragile India, a recent worry in the government.
US secretary of state John Kerry in his statement on Syria said "while investigators are gathering additional evidence on the ground, our understanding of what has already happened in Syria is grounded in facts, informed by conscience, and guided by common sense." After US President Barack Obama laid down "redlines" on Syria it was clear that chemical attacks or evidence of such attacks would invite US action.
This is not the first chemical attack allegation, the last being in May. At the time, suspicion fell on certain rebel groups. While there is no certainty this time about who carried out the most recent attack, Kerry, while not actually naming the Syrian government, said "we know that the Syrian regime maintains custody of these chemical weapons. We know that the Syrian regime has the capacity to do this with rockets. We know that the regime has been determined to clear the opposition from those very places where the attacks took place." For many, the statement was the closest that Kerry came to justifying a military attack on Assad's forces.